In a significant shift from its previous stance, the Canadian government announced plans to reduce its immigration levels by nearly 100,000 over the next few years.
This decision marks a departure from Canada’s long-standing approach to welcoming newcomers and reflects ongoing concerns about housing affordability, economic pressures, and public sentiment. Here’s a deeper look into the changes and their implications.
Canada’s Shift Towards Reduced Immigration Levels
It is anticipated that the decision will be made on Thursday. The revised intake targets for permanent residents will be reduced by 90,000 in 2025, from 485,000 this year to 395,000.It is anticipated that the decision will be made on Thursday.
The revised intake targets for permanent residents will be reduced by 90,000 in 2025, from 485,000 this year to 395,000.
Government’s Standpoint
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that while Canada will always welcome newcomers, it is essential to ensure that the immigration system is sustainable and not out of control.
Immigration Minister Marc Miller echoed these sentiments, emphasising the need to balance population growth with the capacity of housing and public services.
Following a heated Liberal caucus meeting on Wednesday, where dozens of MPs vented their frustrations to Trudeau over the general unpopularity of their leader and his programs, the abrupt change in government policy was announced.
After a major fall between this year and next, the immigration decline of more than 120,000 over three years is a stunning U-turn from the announcement last year to further boost the inflow of permanent residents to 500,000 in 2025.
Temporary Resident Reduction
The reduction in temporary resident levels aligns with earlier comments made by Immigration Minister Marc Miller in the spring of 2024. Miller had expressed his intention to decrease the share of temporary residents in Canada’s population from 6.5% to 5.2% over the next three years. This reduction is seen as a strategic move to manage the population growth fueled by international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers.
Significant Cuts to Permanent Residence Programs
Several permanent residence programs are also expected to face significant cuts. According to information obtained by the National Post, the most notable reductions will be seen in the federal economic class of immigrants, which is expected to be slashed by roughly 60%. The intake for this class will drop to just over 41,000 in 2025, though a slight increase is anticipated in 2026 and 2027.
Provincial Nominee Programs
The provincial nominee programs (PNPs) are also set to see a sharp decline, with the number of permanent residents granted through these programs expected to be cut by half in 2025, down to 55,000. This figure is projected to remain steady until 2027, limiting provincial immigration efforts.
Family Reunification and Refugee Programs
The number of permanent residents granted through family reunification programs is also expected to be reduced by approximately 20,000. Similar cuts are anticipated for the refugee and protected persons categories, although these numbers can fluctuate depending on the volume of asylum claims made in any given year.
Economic Class to Remain Dominant
Despite the reductions, the government expects that economic class applicants will continue to represent approximately 60% of all permanent resident applications granted in the coming years. This highlights the ongoing focus on attracting skilled workers, even amid the cuts.
Impact on Housing and Health-Care Services
The reduction in both permanent resident and temporary resident levels is expected to ease some of the pressure on Canada’s housing market and health-care services. However, the cuts may also pose challenges for employers, particularly those looking to hire from a shrinking pool of skilled workers and temporary employees.
Addressing Labor Market and Youth Unemployment
In September 2024, Minister Miller acknowledged the “challenges” posed by current immigration levels, including a rise in youth and newcomer unemployment. He emphasised the need for a recalibration of immigration volumes to address these issues and ensure a well-managed system. Miller pointed to the sharp increase in temporary residents, particularly international students and temporary foreign workers, as a driving factor behind the decision to scale back immigration.
Changing Public Sentiment on Immigration
The government’s decision to reduce immigration levels comes amid growing public concern about the number of newcomers. A recent Leger survey revealed that 65% of Canadians believe there are “too many” immigrants currently in the country, compared to just over one-fifth who feel that immigration levels are “about right.” Jack Jedwab, CEO of the Association of Canadians Studies, noted that public sentiment against immigration has reached a new high, underscoring the need for the government to address these concerns.
Rebalancing Canada’s Immigration System
As the government prepares to announce its new immigration and temporary resident targets, Minister Miller has promised a “rebalancing” of the system to better manage population growth and ensure sustainable immigration levels. This shift is expected to shape Canada’s immigration landscape for the foreseeable future, with a focus on addressing housing shortages, labour market challenges, and public concerns about immigration.
Key Factors Behind the Policy Shift
Canada’s recent shift in immigration policy is driven by several key factors, primarily the housing affordability crisis. Rapid population growth, fueled by high immigration levels, has exacerbated the demand for housing, leading to skyrocketing prices and making it harder for both newcomers and existing residents to secure affordable homes. By reducing immigration targets, the government hopes to ease pressure on the housing market.
Economic and political concerns also play a role in this change. There are worries that high immigration rates could lead to youth unemployment and underemployment as the job market struggles to accommodate the growing population. Additionally, declining public support for immigration, driven by fears over job security and social services, has prompted the government to adjust its policies ahead of upcoming elections, aiming to align with voter concerns.
In a significant shift from its previous stance, the Canadian government announced plans to reduce its immigration levels by nearly 100,000 over the next few years.
— The Canada Time (@thecanadatime) October 24, 2024
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Breaking Down the New Canada Immigration Levels Plan
Canada’s new immigration levels plan reflects a broader economic and social shift by the Trudeau administration, with significant cuts expected across key immigration categories. Economic-class immigration will see a 60% reduction, dropping to just over 41,000 accepted applicants in 2025, with modest recovery by 2026-2027. Programs impacted include the CEC, FSW, and PNPs, with the latter halved to 55,000 in 2025, a number that will remain unchanged until 2027.
Family reunification visas will be reduced by 20,000, bringing the total to 98,000 in 2025. Refugee programs will also see cuts, though numbers may fluctuate. For the first time, official targets for temporary residents will be set, reducing applications by 30,000 in 2025 to just over 300,000, aligning with efforts to lower their share of the population over the next three years.
The forthcoming immigration levels plan for 2025 and beyond will provide detailed targets and strategies for managing immigration. These plans are subject to annual reviews and adjustments based on economic needs, housing availability, and other factors.
This shift in Canada’s immigration policy marks a move towards a more balanced approach, considering both the benefits of immigration and the challenges it presents.