The recent election of Donald Trump as the U.S. President marks a significant shift in North American politics and has raised concerns about potential impacts on Canadian immigration. With Trump’s well-known anti-immigration stance and strong policy directives expected to impact U.S. immigration, Canada may face indirect consequences ranging from increased asylum seekers to diplomatic tensions over shared border management.
Laura Dawson of the Future Borders Coalition, which seeks to smooth bilateral trade and travel, said the real challenge will be gradually declining investor confidence in America’s northern neighbour.
“For Canada, four years of a Trump presidency could be very long indeed,” she said.
However despite the differences, Canada is going to be benefitted by Trump’s presidency. “I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations,” Trudeau said on X.
Increased Migration to Canada Amid Stricter U.S. Policies
Trump’s focus on stringent immigration control was central to his 2024 campaign, as he promised policies such as mass deportations, limitations on asylum, and an end to birthright citizenship. Reuters emphasises Trump’s commitment to “carry out mass deportations and expand travel bans,” which could push more migrants toward Canada in search of safety and stability.
In fact, following his 2016 election, Canada saw an increase in asylum seekers entering from the United States—particularly at unregulated border points, with many migrants citing concerns over U.S. immigration enforcement. According to a BBC report, this phenomenon could likely repeat itself, potentially on a larger scale, as Trump plans to implement even stricter measures. This is expected to raise challenges for Canadian border management, especially in areas like Roxham Road in Quebec, which became a common entry point for asylum seekers during Trump’s first term.
Impact on the Safe Third Country Agreement
The anticipated rise in U.S.-to-Canada migration could also place pressure on the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA) between Canada and the U.S. Under this agreement, asylum seekers must apply for refugee status in the first safe country they enter, which has been a point of contention during past surges in irregular crossings. The BBC notes that “advocates have long called for Canada to withdraw from the STCA,” arguing it forces asylum seekers into unsafe or precarious conditions when they cross into Canada at unofficial points.
Trump’s intensified approach could reignite debates around this agreement and even lead to calls for its revision or suspension.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has not yet indicated whether he plans to alter Canada’s stance on the STCA, but many experts believe that further U.S. crackdowns will inevitably strain this policy, requiring Canada to either enforce stricter border controls or adjust the agreement’s terms.
Economic and Labor Implications for Canada
One often overlooked aspect of immigration is its economic impact, particularly in industries that rely on foreign labour. Reuters suggests that Trump’s policies could cut back on labour immigration to the U.S., potentially creating a gap in industries such as agriculture, construction, and services. Mohit Kumar, chief economist at Jefferies, points out that “economically we need immigration, but the political dynamics are shifting away from immigration” in the U.S. context. This shift could push labour immigrants, especially skilled workers, toward Canada instead.
Canada, with its ageing population and shrinking labour force, has increasingly turned to immigration to address labour shortages. For example, sectors such as healthcare and technology rely heavily on immigrant talent to fill critical roles. If the U.S. becomes less welcoming to skilled migrants, Canada might see an opportunity to attract this talent pool, potentially helping to drive economic growth and innovation.
Desjardins Economics analysts forecast Trump’s policies would result in real Canadian gross domestic product falling by 1.7% by end-2028 compared to what would have happened under a Democratic president.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce said Trump’s planned 10% tariff would cut Canada’s real income by 0.9% annually and labour productivity by nearly 1%. If other countries retaliate, setting off a trade war, real income would drop by 1.5% annually, with labour productivity falling by nearly 1.6% each year, the chamber said.
Diplomatic Tensions and Policy Divergences
Trump’s relationship with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has historically been rocky, with tensions flaring over trade, border policies, and defence. Trump’s win “adds to Trudeau’s challenges” as he will now have to navigate complex diplomatic terrain with a U.S. administration that may prioritise American interests over cooperative agreements. Canadian policies on immigration, refugees, and international students could become points of contention, especially if Canada’s stance diverges sharply from Trump’s policies.
Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., expressed confidence that Canada has the leverage to oppose Trump’s proposed 10% tariffs effectively, indicating that her team had already engaged in ongoing discussions with Trump’s advisers to emphasise why such a move would be ill-advised. She told CBC in October that they had invested significant time communicating this stance to his team.
Despite keeping public statements about Trump respectful, internal Liberal discussions reflect a clear awareness of the potential challenges his administration could pose. Prime Minister Trudeau reportedly acknowledged in a private meeting that a second Trump term would be “significantly more challenging” than the first, according to a source familiar with the discussion.
Policy tensions between Canada and the U.S. seem unavoidable, particularly if Trump pursues mass deportations of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. Former Conservative immigration minister Jason Kenney warned that such actions could lead to a surge of people moving northward, creating pressure on Canada’s social services and potentially causing a homelessness crisis. Kim Richard Nossal, a politics professor at Queen’s University, suggested that under Trump, both the U.S. and Europe might adopt more isolationist and adversarial stances, leaving Canada vulnerable and likely pressured to boost defence spending.
In summary, Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency could significantly impact Canadian immigration. With likely increases in asylum seekers, strains on border agreements, and various economic effects, Canada may need to adapt its immigration policies to respond to these changes in U.S. policy. As Trump pushes for tighter immigration controls, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s administration faces the challenge of balancing Canada’s open, welcoming reputation with the practical demands of managing heightened border pressures.
In response, Canada must carefully consider how to maintain its humanitarian approach to immigration while addressing essential needs like border security and labour market requirements.
