The Immigration Levels Plan for 2025–2027 will undergo a major revision, which the Canadian government is preparing for. The proposal will include the direct inclusion of temporary residents, including visitors, temporary foreign workers, and international students, for the first time. Canada’s changing strategy for dealing with its demographic and economic issues is reflected in this tactical change. On November 1, 2024, the revised plan will be unveiled, which will set clear goals for these additional inclusions and signal a change to a more inclusive immigration policy.
Why the Shift? Addressing Economic and Demographic Challenges
The decision to include temporary residents in the Immigration Levels Plan comes at a time when Canada faces several key challenges, including labour shortages and an ageing population. With a significant portion of the workforce nearing retirement, Canada must attract and retain younger, skilled individuals to support economic growth and sustain social programs. Temporary residents, many of whom have Canadian work experience or education, are seen as an ideal source of talent to fill gaps in critical sectors such as healthcare, technology, and construction.
In order to guarantee a consistent flow of skilled workers, Canada intends to directly integrate these individuals into the Immigration Levels Plan. This strategy helps Canada achieve its long-term population growth objectives while simultaneously boosting the economy. Retaining temporary residents can be essential to preserving demographic balance and bolstering the labour market in the face of a declining birth rate.
Study Permits Changes
Earlier this year, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) introduced a cap on the number of study permits issued to international students. The department planned to process around 606,000 study permit applications and approve approximately 360,000 of them, representing a 35% reduction in the number of permits processed compared to previous years. This decision was particularly notable because it contrasted with earlier remarks from the immigration minister, who had expressed opposition to setting specific caps or quotas, especially for Canada’s international student program.
In 2023, international students made up a significant proportion of temporary residents in Canada, accounting for 42% of this population. The policy shift towards limiting study permits is part of a broader adjustment to manage the influx of international students more effectively. Furthermore, the minister announced that in 2025, the IRCC plans to further reduce study permit processing to around 437,000 applications. Notably, this reduction will include students pursuing advanced degrees, such as master’s and doctoral programs, who were previously not subject to these limits.
These adjustments indicate a shift in Canada’s approach to managing the flow of international students, aiming to balance the demand for education in Canada with the capacity to integrate new residents effectively.
Closed Work Permit Changes
Randy Boissonnault, Canada’s Minister of Employment, Workforce Development, and Official Languages, has announced new restrictions on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP). The changes include a cap limiting employers to hiring no more than 10% of their workforce through the TFWP, encouraging businesses to prioritise local hires. Additionally, the maximum duration for employing workers through the program’s Low-Wage stream has been reduced from two years to one year, aiming to ensure that temporary foreign labour remains a short-term solution.
In addition to the cap, the IRCC will now limit the processing of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) for low-wage roles in regions with higher unemployment rates. Specifically, LMIAs for these positions will not be processed in Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) with unemployment rates exceeding 6%, except under certain circumstances. This policy is designed to promote the hiring of domestic workers in areas where unemployment is more prevalent, ensuring that the TFWP is used only when local labour is not available.
Minister Boissonnault has emphasised that the TFWP is meant as a last-resort measure for filling labour gaps, cautioning against the over-reliance on foreign workers. While these new rules aim to address the balance between domestic and foreign labour, the minister has not provided estimates on how they will impact the overall number of temporary foreign workers in Canada. These changes align with the government’s broader efforts to strengthen the Canadian labour market by encouraging the use of local talent.
Permanent Residency Changes
Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan for 2024-2026 aims to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents each year, starting in 2025 and continuing through 2026. This plan includes several immigration streams, such as economic programs, family reunification, refugee and protected persons, and humanitarian cases. Recently, Immigration Minister Marc Miller has hinted at potential adjustments to these targets, emphasising that significant changes could be made in the coming years and that all options are being considered.
A major focus of Canada’s current immigration strategy is on economic immigrants, who make up about 60% of new arrivals. These skilled workers are valued for their ability to integrate into the workforce and boost the economy. Minister Miller noted that this emphasis on economic immigration is notably higher than that of many other countries, making Canada’s approach distinct on the global stage.
What to Expect from the New Immigration Levels Plan
In November 2024, specifics on the integration of temporary residents into the Immigration Levels Plan will be revealed. One of the most important factors will probably be how the government plans to distribute the number of permanent residency spots between the new category for temporary residents and other conventional streams, such as economic immigration. Stakeholders anticipate that people who are already meeting Canada’s labour market demands will be given precedence, especially in industries where there is a significant need for qualified workers.
Mechanisms for easing temporary residents’ transfer to permanent status are also anticipated to be covered in the strategy; these may include more specialised pathways or lenient standards for individuals with Canadian experience. Increased quotas in programs like the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and specially designed provincial initiatives to keep talent in the area could result from this.
As the plan’s release approaches, both prospective immigrants and temporary residents are eager to see how these changes will impact their future in Canada. For those currently residing temporarily, this could be a pivotal moment, offering new opportunities for securing their place in Canada’s future.
